Ethiopia’s Grand Recalibration: Place Branding, Public Diplomacy and the Limits of Narrative Governance

Yitina Gebre
Senior Researcher, Multilateral Organizations Affairs Department, Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA)

Abstract

This article examined Ethiopia’s post-2018 Grand Recalibration by taking the state’s efficient public diplomacy as a thoughtful approach for reputation haven amides at shifting global order. The study was enthused by a strategic narrative framework that used to interplay of identity, issues and system level discourses within policy analysis. A qualitative research design involving document analysis was employed to examine executive speeches consisting of official documents (N=142) issued between 2018 and 2025. Purposive sampling technique was used to select (N=44) relevant and powerful speech that has directly influenced the strategic narratives. The relevant that were collected from media, news and speeches of executives at different occasion such as parliament, diplomatic forum, awards and meeting were reviewing, selecting, coding and organized and then the analyses and interpreted in line with the strategic narrative theory. The study indicated that identity narratives emanated from Medemer philosophy taken into account as a strategic pivot to transform Ethiopia's image from a defensively-oriented ‘fortress state’ into a proactive regional anchor and leader of integration in the Horn.  The study also revealed the Grand Ethiopian Dam (GERD), quest of maritime access through Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), the Digital Ethiopia 2030 strategies were taken scripts/issues designed to legitimize contested policies and projects applied in region. Moreover, the study showed that Ethiopia’s alignment with international community through BRICS+ membership is interpreted as a quest of strategic autonomy and a mechanism for ‘narrative repair’ international and regional reputational shocks. However, the study found that persistent domestic instability and a widening significantly constrain the of Ethiopia’s strategic messaging. The article concluded that the ability of Ethiopia's recalibration depends on the alignment of external narratives with domestic governance performance underscoring that in contested regions, reputation is a critical, albeit fragile, asset in national security and strategic competition.

Keywords: Ethiopia; Reputational Security; Strategic Narratives; Regional Security.